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Review and analysis of Indus Water Treaty

Indus Water Treaty:

10 things to know about Indus Water Treaty:
·       The Indus Waters Treaty was signed on September 19, 1960 by the then Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Pakistan's President Ayub Khan.
·       It was brokered by the World Bank.
·       The treaty administers how river Indus and its tributaries that flow in both the countries will be utilised.
·       According to the treaty, Beas, Ravi and Sutlej are to be governed by India, while, Indus, Chenab and Jhelum are to be taken care by Pakistan.
·       However, since Indus flows from India, the country is allowed to use 20 per cent of its water for irrigation, power generation and transport purposes.
·       A Permanent Indus Commission was set up as a bilateral commission to implement and manage the Treaty. The Commission solves disputes arising over water sharing.
·       The Treaty also provides arbitration mechanism to solve disputes amicably.
·       Though Indus originates from Tibet, China has been kept out of the Treaty. If China decides to stop or change the flow of the river, it will affect both India and Pakistan.
·       Climate change is causing melting of ice in Tibetan plateau, which scientists believe will affect the river in future.
·       It may be noted that both India and Pakistan are still at loggerheads over various issues since Partition, but there has been no fight over water after the Treaty was ratified.
What the disagreement is about:
India and Pakistan disagree about the construction of the Kishenganga (330 megawatts) and Ratle (850 megawatts) hydroelectric power plants being built by India (the World Bank is not financing either project).  The two countries disagree over whether the technical design features of the two hydroelectric plants contravene the Treaty. The plants are on respectively a tributary of the Jhelum and the Chenab Rivers. The Treaty designates these two rivers as well as the Indus as the “Western Rivers” to which Pakistan has unrestricted use. Among other uses, under the Treaty, India is permitted to construct hydroelectric power facilities on these rivers subject to constraints specified in Annexures to the Treaty. Talks related to the Kishenganga and Ratle hydroelectric power plants are ongoing.
Pausing Treaty processes and working with India and Pakistan:
On December 12, 2016, World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim announced that the World Bank would pause before taking further steps in each of the two processes requested by the parties. This was done to safeguard the treaty, since referring the matter simultaneously to the processes sought by each of the countries risked contradictory outcomes and worked against the spirit of goodwill and friendship that underpins the Treaty.
Since December 2016, the World Bank has worked towards an amicable resolution of the matter and to safeguard the Treaty.
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History of the Treaty
During the first years of Partition, the water of the Indus was apportioned by the Inter-Dominion Accord of May 5, 1948 between India and Pakistan which required India to release sufficient waters to the Pakistani regions of the basin in return for annual payments from Pakistan.
The accord was, however, meant to fulfil Pakistan's immediate requirements and was to be followed by negotiations for a more permanent solution. Thereafter, though there was a stalemate
In 1951, David Lilienthal, former Chairman of the Tennessee Valley Authority and of the UN Atomic Energy Commission, visited the region and recommended that, to reduce hostility between India and Pakistan, a program to develop and operate jointly the Indus basin river system could be evolved. According to him, this would also lead to a settlement of the Kashmir issue. The president of the World Bank, Eugene R Black, received the suggestion and mediated the water sharing agreement.
In December 1954, the two sides returned to the negotiating table and continued their meetings for the next six years. The Treaty led to the setting up of an Indus Water Commission to adjudicate any future dispute over the allocation of water. The commission, which has survived two wars, is required to meet regularly to discuss potential disputes and provide an ongoing machinery for consultation and conflict resolution through inspection, exchange of data and visits.
How does it affect Jammu and Kashmir?
Jammu and Kashmir too has not been able to harness the full potential of the treaty. In 2007, the Union Water Ministry had estimated Jammu and Kashmir can increase its Irrigated Cropped Area (ICA) by 4,25,000 acres. But today, Out of 6,00,000 Hectares of cultivated land in Jammu and Kashmir only 1,50,000 Hectares is under irrigation. This has also affected hydropower generation. Current estimates suggests there is a possibility of harnessing more than 20,000 MW but today there is only an estimated 2,500 MV being harnessed.
It is revealed from the above analysis that the actual power potential of Jhelum, Chenab, Indus and Ravi are 3,560 MW, 10,360 MW, 2,060 MW and 50 MW respectively. Currently, the harnessed potential of these river basins are 750.1 MWs, 1563.8 MWs, 13.3 MWs, and 129 MWs respectively.
Power potential of Chenab:
The Chenab is at the core of Jammu and Kashmir's quest for power. Of the 16,480 MW, the total identified potential of all the water resources in the state put together, Chenab alone can generate 10,360 MW. So far, only 1,531.50 MW has been harnessed.
The water level starts soaring by late May and reaches around 50,000 cusecs by June. By August, it starts receding to the normal level.
Power potential of Jhelum:
The river is a potential threat during floods when it gets up to 95,000 cusecs (its carrying capacity is only 40 thousand cusecs). It has an identified potential of 3,536 MW of which so far 732.60 MW has been harnessed by the National Hydroelectric Power Corporation (NHPC) and 252 MW by the Power Development Corporation (PDC). Currently, another 241.85 MW capacity is under various stages of implementation.
Power potential of Indus:
One of the greatest rivers of the world, the Indus's estimated annual flow stands at around 207 cubic kms. Zanskar is its left bank tributary in Ladakh as the Shyok, Shigar and Gilgit rivers carry glacial waters into the main river. Just a few small and micro hydropower projects have been set up, part of the reason being that the potential spots were far away. The NHPC has commissioned two power projects — Nimoo-Bazgoo and Chutak in Leh and Kargil with a cumulative installed capacity of 90.26 MW.
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