Is time up for the Indus Water Treaty?

Is time up for the Indus Water Treaty?

India has expectedly backtracked from its recent pledge to continue deliberations on Islamabad’s objection to its recent projects on the rivers allocated as per the Indus Water Treaty (IWT). Since Delhi is not willing to accept World Bank’s arbitration, thus the April meeting in Washington DC is improbable. The Indian government took only a couple of days to renege from its vow given in Islamabad and Lahore this week.

Last September when Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi threatened to scrap the IWT, Pakistan stated that such a move would tantamount to a ‘declaration of war’.

On April 1, 1948, Delhi halted the flow of water from the canals on its side. By early May, it had signed the Inter-Dominion Agreement with Pakistan, allowing the continuation of water supplies for irrigation purposes until the newly formed country developed alternative water resources. Delhi blocked the water supply to Pakistan to assert its military control of Jammu & Kashmir which Kashmiris as well as Pakistanis rejected.

Later, Indian Premier Jawaharlal Nehru invited American expert David E Lilienthal to survey the situation. Lilienthal’s determinations favored Pakistan’s position, thus failed to win Delhi’s support. The matter remained unresolved as the WB sponsored several rounds of talks in Washington from 1952 to 1960. The pact allocated the eastern rivers (Ravi, Sutlej and Beas) to India and the western rivers (Jhelum, Chenab and Sindh) to Pakistan.

Legally speaking, none of its 12 articles and eight annexes provide India the right to construct a certain number of dams. The IWP only spells out technical specifications about the reservoir permitted to be built. Thus, the accord’s clauses concerning dispute resolution can Pakistan if it invokes them on technical parameters of the lake.

Learning from the past blunders ranging from lack of handy expertise about the treaty’s application in various scenarios to picking a slow and costly process of appointment of neutral expert, Islamabad must adopt a more pro-active approach. Considering India’s foot-dragging policy, Pakistan may consider seeking its right as lower riparian under the principles of customary international law. Islamabad has not gone this route before but prominent experts of international law find it more promising.